Could the baseball cap help us predict the winner of the US election?

Words by Kieran Carter
A red hat used to be a red hat.
But since the 2016 US election, ‘Make America Great Again’ baseball caps have been an instantly recognisable part of the former President Donald Trump’s three campaigns for office.
The hats proved so popular that in 2016 his team’s own finance reports showed they were spending more on merchandise than any other campaign expense – eclipsing polling, consultants and even TV advertising.
Competing memorabilia has failed to reach the same level of recognition, but since Vice President Kamala Harris formed a new ticket, the MAGA hats found an unlikely rival.
A camouflage cap with both Vice President Harris and running mate Tim Walz’s names embroidered in orange has surged in popularity, selling out its first batch in just 30 minutes.
Like the memes that surrounded the start of her campaign, its origins came from the internet. When Kamala Harris announced Tim Walz as her running mate, people were quick to react.
Accepting the Vice President’s pick in his plain camo hat, some jokingly nicknamed him their ‘Midwest Princess’, referencing both his Minnesota background and a camo hat sold by popular singer, Chappell Roan, to promote her album.
The Harris campaign was quick to respond. By that evening Tim Walz had already tweeted a photo of himself wearing the newly minted Harris-Walz version.
In the next 24 hours the campaign confirmed it had sold more than $1m worth of the same design. Currently out of stock, the hat’s now on pre-order for its next release.
With increasingly opposed political parties it’s rare to see both campaigns most popular hats side by side.
But that’s not the case at one factory in New Jersey, where the same clothing manufacturer has been involved in producing merchandise for leading candidates on both sides of the political divide since 1992.
Founder of Unionwear, Mitch Cahn, says the demand for Harris hats ahead of the November 5 election has been unprecedented.
“It’s unlike anything we’ve seen,” he told ITV News.
“Biden sold nothing… I think they were still using stuff from the last election. There was just no merchandise sales at all and we were very concerned.”
Mitch Cahn says he began preparing for the Democrats to announce a new candidate the day after Joe Biden’s poor debate performance.
“We premeptively made 50,000 dollars worth of blank hats ready to be embroidered with the new candidate’s name.
“When Harris was confirmed we sold the entire batch the next day, then five times that again.
“Walz being added to the ticket saw sales increase further,” Cahn added.
By no means an official poll, Mitch links merchandise sales to candidate support.
In 2016, Unionwear made hats for both Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump’s official campaigns. When most polls had Hilary Clinton as the favourite to win, the hat sales told a different story.
“In 2016 Hilary merchandise was just a fraction of what Obama’s were, probably 5-10%.
“All the polls were showing she was the favourite, and we had a tough time reconciling that with the low sales.
“Turns out she wasn’t as popular as the polls predicted,” Mitch joked.
Supporters of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris might be encouraged to hear, month on month, Harris merchandise is selling nearly twice as much as Obama products ever did.
But pollsters hoping to read the tea leaves of sales figures for a steer on this November’s winner might be disheartened. This year the Trump campaign’s official MAGA hat supplier is based in California, making a direct comparison harder.
Unionwear still makes the red caps, but largely for Republican organisations not directly affiliated with the former President’s official campaign.
Since election souvenirs took off in the early 2000s, official sales provide campaigns with both a source of income and valuable information about the buyer.
Despite their value, complaints against unofficial products are rare. Candidates tend to favour the support and tacit endorsement more than the money an official store purchase generates.
Next year marks the 250th anniversary of American manufacturing and this election the ‘American Made’ label is more important than ever to candidates eager to avoid accusations of hypocrisy.
“There’s so much rhetoric about domestic manufacturing and the loss of jobs. It wouldn’t be good for candidates to talk about that but not make their own merchandise in America.
“Every time that happens it makes the news,” Mitch said.
Mitch expects hat sales to continue past the November 5 election date, as the popularity of political caps continues to grow.
He credits the surge to the rise in popularity of the political selfie and the increased use of drone filming at campaign rallies. From above, a sea of red, and now camouflage, signals a clear show of support in media reports and campaign material.
In past years, old campaign merchandise has achieved collectable status. Excess stock has even been spotted as far away as Kenya after Mitt Romney donated his bid’s leftover T-shirts to an African charity with whom he was connected.
While the result of November’s election may be far from certain, one thing’s for sure. Despite its camouflage pattern, you’ll be sure to see the Kamala cap for years to come.
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